Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Shooter?

Shooter + Western

Of 65 developers who shipped a Western Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×451 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 92 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $1.2k → $1.3k → $2.3k → $1.2k → $449 → $299 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,390)
Top 5% $283k (exactly $283,058)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 202
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, FPS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 54,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Red Dead Redemption $49.99 20,294 92% 609k $30M (exactly $30,434,912) Rockstar Games, Double Eleven
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Evil West older $49.99 10,215 74% 306k $15M (exactly $15,319,436) Flying Wild Hog
War of Rights · EA older $29.99 13,441 88% 403k $12M (exactly $12,092,868) Campfire Games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Mohrta $19.99 1,482 91% 44k $889k (exactly $888,755) Scumhead, Osiol
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Outlaws + Handful of Missions: Remaster $29.99 230 93% 6.9k $207k (exactly $206,931) LucasArts, Nightdive Studios
Golden Chambers · EA $19.99 195 80% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Mr. Pink
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
I Want to Believe $16.99 47 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $23,956) Fang's Lab
The Prisoning: Fletcher's Quest $14.99 53 88% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Elden Pixels

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.