Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Shooter?

Shooter + Villain Protagonist

Only 1 developer shipped a Villain-Led Shooter in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 8 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 0 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $220k against a market of $630. 4 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 354.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 4 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shooter + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $185k (exactly $185,276)
Median $477k (exactly $476,560)
Top 25% $16M (exactly $15,610,496)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $26,703,985)
Developers, 4 yr 8
Released games 26
Announced 4
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.76

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter
Price point
$17.76 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 87,354 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $190k, median $480k, 1 in 4 over $15M, 1 in 20 over $26M.

3 in 10 developers made under $190k. 4 games are announced against 0 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League 2024 · $27M Six Days in Fallujah 2023 · EA · $16M Aliens vs. Predator™ 2010 · $7.3M Battlefield™ Hardline 2020 · $4.8M Police Stories 2019 · $4.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Aliens vs. Predator™ older $14.99 16,268 91% 488k $7.3M (exactly $7,315,720) Rebellion
Battlefield™ Hardline older $39.99 4,000 68% 120k $4.8M (exactly $4,798,800) DICE
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
Hatred older $5.99 25,770 84% 773k $4.6M (exactly $4,630,869) Destructive Creations
X-Morph: Defense older $19.99 3,272 90% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) EXOR Studios
Enforcer: Police Crime Action older $19.99 1,562 46% 47k $937k (exactly $936,731) Odin Game Studio
Alex Jones: NWO Wars older $17.76 1,745 92% 52k $930k (exactly $929,736) NWO Wars Team
BDSM: Big Drunk Satanic Massacre older $19.99 1,114 87% 33k $668k (exactly $668,066) Big Way Games
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.