Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Shooter?

Shooter + Underground

Of 37 developers who shipped an Underground Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×128 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 68 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 68 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $59 → $299 → $599 → $2.2k → $1.3k → $2.4k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 106
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) $9.99 2,329 89% 70k $698k (exactly $698,001) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Resident Evil 2 (1998) $9.99 2,084 90% 63k $625k (exactly $624,575) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil (1996) $9.99 1,602 90% 48k $480k (exactly $480,119) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
goblinAmerica · EA $14.99 179 96% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Gil Lawson
ARKOS older $9.99 179 78% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) RetroSouls
DUNGEON RAZE $2.99 458 85% 14k $41k (exactly $41,083) KOTARO YOSHIDA
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Tokyo Underground Killer $9.99 52 78% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Phoenix Game Productions
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
Bugscraper $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Yolwoocle, OLX, Verbaudet, Ninesliced
Internal Extraction $7.99 22 77% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) LuisDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.