Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Shooter?

Shooter + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 24 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $479 → $3.1k → $120 → $356 → $189k (still earning) → $135 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $356 (exactly $356)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,254)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 75
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cinematic, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 26,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Breach & Clear older $9.99 2,019 82% 61k $605k (exactly $605,094) Mighty Rabbit Studios, Gun Interactive
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Police Shootout older $14.99 449 55% 13k $202k (exactly $201,915) Games Incubator, Hypnotic Ants
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Deep Space Battle Simulator older $9.99 358 78% 11k $107k (exactly $107,293) yeswecamp
Little Witch Survivors $4.99 543 87% 16k $81k (exactly $81,287) 四月二酱
The Ghost Treasure $1.99 88 93% 2.6k $5.3k (exactly $5,254) 谭浩翔
Starbug Troopers : The 4 horseflies of the apocalypse $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Big Loot Games
Bedroom Battlegrounds $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) WCHC
Headshot Roulette $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Atomic Collective
Geometry Shooter Pro $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Error 300

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.