Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Shooter?

Shooter + Top-Down Shooter

Of 792 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,085 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 419 developers shipped in the last year and 1,085 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 1,085 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 792
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.0k → $449 → $599 → $479 → $360 → $299 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 792
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,602)
Developers, 2 yr 792
Released games 2,524
Announced 1,085
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Top-Down Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 108,160 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 437 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,085 games are announced against 419 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Hotline Miami older $9.99 109,610 96% 3.3M $33M (exactly $32,850,117) Dennaton Games
Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number older $14.99 69,423 94% 2.1M $31M (exactly $31,219,523) Dennaton Games
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
RUINER older $19.99 10,338 89% 310k $6.2M (exactly $6,199,699) Reikon Games
SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising older $19.99 10,111 94% 303k $6.1M (exactly $6,063,567) Flow Fire Games
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Gatekeeper $14.99 2,706 82% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,216,888) Gravity Lagoon
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Zombieville USA 3D $9.99 2,184 92% 66k $655k (exactly $654,545) Mika Mobile, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.