Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Shooter?

Shooter + Time Manipulation

Of 38 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $20k, ×32 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 74 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 74 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $3.1k → $1.8k → $4.6k → $1.3k → $449 → $240 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 133
Announced 74
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Time Manipulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Time, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $990, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
SUPERHOT older $24.99 27,765 91% 833k $21M (exactly $20,815,420) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Singularity™ older $29.99 5,487 93% 165k $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) Raven Software
TimeShift™ older $19.99 1,131 80% 34k $678k (exactly $678,261) Saber Interactive
Super Time Force Ultra older $14.99 677 90% 20k $304k (exactly $304,447) Capybara Games
Bullet Sorrow VR older $19.99 272 83% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) VikingVRStudio
Sine Mora EX older $9.99 463 66% 14k $139k (exactly $138,761) Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufactur… (Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufacture, Gyroscope Games)
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Vendetta Forever $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Meatspace Interactive
COLD VR $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) ALLWARE LLC
Shadows of Soldiers $9.99 45 75% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Ghost in the Wire
SPEEDSHOT $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) karmacode
Time Hacker $14.99 24 70% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Joy Way
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
AIRANBLADE $8.99 17 94% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) ANIMABOX
CYBER92 DATAWAR $9.92 14 50% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,166) Cyber92 Solo Developer
GOST of Time $4.99 27 100% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) IzHard

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.