Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Shooter?

Shooter + Swordplay

Of 27 developers who shipped a Swordplay Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×858 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 56 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $1.2k → $35k → $54k → $4.2k → $478 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,372)
Top 5% $539k (exactly $538,531)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 93
Announced 56
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Swordplay; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $840, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Bright Memory: Infinite older $19.99 36,229 91% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,726,531) FYQD-Studio
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Shadow Warrior older $29.99 15,960 92% 479k $14M (exactly $14,359,212) Flying Wild Hog
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ older $9.99 11,290 96% 339k $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) Raven Software
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™ older $9.99 4,048 91% 121k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,186) Raven Software
Rustler (Grand Theft Horse) older $24.99 1,227 78% 37k $920k (exactly $919,882) Jutsu Games
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Yasuke Simulator $6.99 1,925 97% 58k $404k (exactly $403,672) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Yuri Sword Saga $10.99 212 97% 6.4k $70k (exactly $69,896) Pico Games
Hell of an Office $14.99 121 89% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) 43 Studios
Lia: Hacking Destiny $14.99 92 96% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Orube Game Studio
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio
Dark Sword: The Light of Ainn $3.99 63 93% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) MrDoth
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.