Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Shooter?

Shooter + Sports

Of 70 developers who shipped a Sports Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 83 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 83 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.5k → $1.2k → $300 → $2.9k → $240 → $300 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,644)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 393
Announced 83
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, FPS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 5,362 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M Way of the Hunter 2022 · $7.7M MindsEye 2025 · $3.0M Aerofly FS 4 Flight Simulator 2022 · $2.5M Gas Guzzlers Extreme 2013 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Aerofly FS 4 Flight Simulator older $59.99 1,400 89% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,519,580) IPACS
Gas Guzzlers Extreme older $24.99 3,081 86% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,826) Gamepires
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Hunting Simulator 2 older $39.99 904 70% 27k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,529) Nacon Studio Ghent
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Virtual Hunter $24.99 173 71% 5.2k $130k (exactly $129,698) Korpi Games Oy
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Big Buck Hunter: Ultimate Trophy $39.99 20 60% 600 $24k (exactly $23,994) Cradle Games, Play Mechanix, Inc
Third Person Basketball Court · EA $6.99 67 86% 2.0k $14k (exactly $14,050) kuroki-gaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.