Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Top-Down Shooter

Of 412 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 456 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×170 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 456 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 456 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 412
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $838 → $2.2k → $1.1k → $748 → $958 → $449 → $300 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 412
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $80,919)
Developers, 2 yr 412
Released games 1,434
Announced 456
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 36,966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 220 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 456 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Minishoot' Adventures 2024 · $3.5M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Apocalypse Party 2023 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Apocalypse Party older $9.99 4,658 72% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,396,003) Breaker Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
The Hong Kong Massacre older $19.99 1,696 73% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,017,091) VRESKI
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
DoDonPachi Resurrection older $29.99 982 95% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) CAVE Interactive CO.,LTD.
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
ButtKnight $9.99 1,299 91% 39k $389k (exactly $389,310) Goblin Stew, Critical Bliss
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Slime 3K: Rise Against Despot $4.99 1,584 79% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Konfa Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.