Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Survival game?

Survival + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 196 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 110 developers shipped in the last year and 186 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 186 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $359 → $374 → $359 → $539 → $598 → $299 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $59,581)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 646
Announced 186
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 6,539 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

POSTAL 4: No Regerts 2022 · $6.5M POSTAL: Brain Damaged 2022 · $5.7M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Kill It With Fire 2020 · $1.6M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
POSTAL 4: No Regerts older $19.99 10,855 67% 326k $6.5M (exactly $6,509,743) Running With Scissors
POSTAL: Brain Damaged older $19.99 9,565 95% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,736,130) Hyperstrange, CreativeForge Games
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
Sexy Mystic Survivors · EA older $9.99 1,856 75% 56k $556k (exactly $556,243) Fantasize Games
Alien Shooter 2 - The Legend older $14.99 1,087 52% 33k $489k (exactly $488,824) Sigma Team Inc.
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
SHOOPER NOVA $6.99 545 83% 16k $114k (exactly $114,286) Jamesika
Seed of Heroes $14.99 188 75% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Vermillion Digital
The Horde Wants You Dead $9.99 270 64% 8.1k $81k (exactly $80,919) Bellyflop Games
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
Pinball Storm: Lokanta $5.99 434 70% 13k $78k (exactly $77,990) Aastral Dynamics
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Broventure: The Wild Co-op $4.99 398 72% 12k $60k (exactly $59,581) Alice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.