Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Shoot 'Em Up

Only 9 developers shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou Spell Carnival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $480 against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $450 → $5.1k
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,485)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 26
Announced 11
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 90% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $480, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
Gray Zone older $19.99 52 61% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) EastWorks
Sierra Ops - Space Strategy Visual Novel older $14.99 42 80% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Innomen Team
NEXT JUMP: Shmup Tactics older $3.99 78 80% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) Post Mortem Pixels
Magi older $9.99 21 90% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) MoaCube
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Mind Keeper · EA $10.99 6 100% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) Blackwing Games
Lost Patrol older $5.99 10 30% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Shadow Development
zombie sanctuary:Juliet older $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) 2024-NGame
​Shattered Lands (破碎之地) $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) VoidStudio
Iron Skies $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Matthew Lalande
Stars And Empires: Colony Defense $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Elemental Legion
Save The World $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Wang Yin Ren
The Last Hope: Exodus $5.00 2 0% 60 $300 (exactly $300) Shaheer Saleem
Flooded Lands $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) OpxGaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.