Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Steampunk

Only 14 developers shipped a Steampunk Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Castle Of Alchemists, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $9.1k → $659 → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $277,915)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 710 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Wild Guns Reloaded older $14.99 435 88% 13k $196k (exactly $195,620) NatsumeAtari
Jamestown older $9.99 652 94% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Final Form Games
Sine Mora EX older $9.99 463 66% 14k $139k (exactly $138,761) Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufactur… (Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufacture, Gyroscope Games)
The Chaos Engine older $9.99 279 75% 8.4k $84k (exactly $83,616) Abstraction Games, The Bitmap Brothers
AIRHEART - Tales of broken Wings older $14.99 128 81% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Blindflug Studios AG
Steel Empire older $14.99 100 77% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) mebius.
Naval Warfare older $6.99 189 58% 5.7k $40k (exactly $39,633) Game Distillery s.r.o.
Kamikaze Lassplanes older $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) Inky Dreams
Monsters 'til Midnight older $4.99 93 83% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,922) Retro Dreamer
Vex Clock $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Dave Microwaves Games
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games
The Soul of Romit $3.99 7 57% 210 $838 (exactly $838) Kleon Studio
Ventilate $10.99 2 100% 60 $659 (exactly $659) Inkfox Studios
Soul Machine $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Zanarka Studio
Pirates of Gravitae $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Innerverse Games
Lockstone Mountains $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Waesome Games
The Last Shot: Arcades $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Rumata Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.