Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Spaceships

Only 19 developers shipped a Spaceship Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Reality Break, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $6.7k → $479 → $1.5k → $150 → $0 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $512k (exactly $512,045)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 49
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Psycho Starship Rampage older $9.99 128 83% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Ballistic Frogs
Astral Gunners older $19.99 36 100% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Sati Bros
XIIZEAL older $11.99 59 88% 1.8k $21k (exactly $21,222) TRIANGLE SERVICE
Curved Space older $19.99 24 95% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Only By Midnight Ltd.
Emerald Blue $9.99 43 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Emerald Blue Team
Terra Flame older $14.99 27 96% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) TERARIN GAMES
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
ZAKESTA-Z older $4.99 45 100% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) zakichi
VectaGuard $12.99 6 100% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) RetroNinja
Space Defender · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Petit Vaisseau
Timeloop Titans $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) LapaGames
I Made Myself a Ship $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Draih
Unknown Hero $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Svero Forge
Spaceship Pro Simulator · EA $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Hard Shark Games
Last Star $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nordman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.