Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Shooter?

Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 899 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,043 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 1,043 games are announced against 496 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,043 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 899
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $1.5k → $599 → $748 → $479 → $598 → $300 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 899
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,384)
Developers, 2 yr 899
Released games 3,477
Announced 1,043
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 18,390 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 483 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,043 games are announced against 496 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
POSTAL 4: No Regerts older $19.99 10,855 67% 326k $6.5M (exactly $6,509,743) Running With Scissors
POSTAL: Brain Damaged older $19.99 9,565 95% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,736,130) Hyperstrange, CreativeForge Games
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
Touhou Koumakyou: New Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil $17.99 3,740 98% 112k $2.0M (exactly $2,018,478) 上海アリス幻樂団, 上海アリスReprise
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.