Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Science

Only 15 developers shipped a Science Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cell Command, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 6065% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 6065% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $210 → $22k
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,878)
Top 5% $86k (exactly $85,812)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 38
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6065% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $85k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
Nexus 5X older $14.99 884 90% 27k $398k (exactly $397,535) Whatboy Games
Star Dynasties older $30.99 421 70% 13k $391k (exactly $391,404) Pawley Games
Evolution Board Game older $14.99 348 81% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) North Star Digital Studios
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Cell Command $17.99 159 97% 4.8k $86k (exactly $85,812) Alpherior
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
Governor $15.99 30 76% 900 $14k (exactly $14,391) Daniling
Freenergy $6.99 11 100% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Mir
Power the Future $6.99 2 50% 60 $419 (exactly $419) simnetzero-dev
Caduceus Quest $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Resilient Games Studio, LLC
Every Step Counts $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) nipanko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.