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Should I ship a Science Turn-Based Strategy?
Turn-Based Strategy + Science
Only 15 developers shipped a Science Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cell Command, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 6065% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $419 (exactly $419) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $21,878) |
| Top 5% | $86k (exactly $85,812) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 38 |
| Announced | 18 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6065% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Science
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Asynchronous Multiplayer
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 464 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + Cold WarFair
- + RomeFair
- + LootFair
- + MiningFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + TanksFair
- + SokobanFair
- + Top-Down ShooterFair
- + SpaceFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Terraformers | older | $19.99 | 3,031 88% | 91k | $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) | Asteroid Lab |
| | Slipways | older | $16.99 | 2,233 93% | 67k | $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) | Beetlewing |
| | Nexus 5X | older | $14.99 | 884 90% | 27k | $398k (exactly $397,535) | Whatboy Games |
| | Star Dynasties | older | $30.99 | 421 70% | 13k | $391k (exactly $391,404) | Pawley Games |
| | Evolution Board Game | older | $14.99 | 348 81% | 10k | $156k (exactly $156,496) | North Star Digital Studios |
| | HyperRogue | older | $9.99 | 404 97% | 12k | $121k (exactly $121,079) | Zeno Rogue |
| | Cell Command | $17.99 | 159 97% | 4.8k | $86k (exactly $85,812) | Alpherior | |
| | Screeps: Arena | $19.99 | 105 82% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Screeps, LLC | |
| | Nature Game System | $19.99 | 49 73% | 1.5k | $29k (exactly $29,385) | North Star Digital Games | |
| | SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD | $9.99 | 73 83% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $21,878) | Logix Interactive | |
| | Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation | $15.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $16k (exactly $15,830) | 夜与潜伏者 | |
| | Governor | $15.99 | 30 76% | 900 | $14k (exactly $14,391) | Daniling | |
| | Freenergy | $6.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) | Mir | |
| | Power the Future | $6.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | simnetzero-dev | |
| | Caduceus Quest | $6.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Resilient Games Studio, LLC | |
| | Every Step Counts | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | nipanko |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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