Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Science

Only 14 developers shipped a Science Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Genome Guardian 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 200% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $5.8k → $300 → $628 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $628 (exactly $628)
Top 5% $197k (exactly $196,677)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 59
Announced 16
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 460 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $620, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Raiden Legacy - Steam Edition older $9.99 259 54% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Dotemu
Sus Virus Amogus older $39.99 51 82% 1.5k $61k (exactly $61,185) Galactic Geckon
Captain Forever Trilogy older $9.99 139 86% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Farbs
REPLIKATOR older $5.99 115 85% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) R_Games
Wild Dogs older $9.99 56 96% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) 2ndBoss
Survivor Cells older $9.99 37 78% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) YAW Studios
ROCKETRON older $5.99 60 86% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) ASTRO PORT
Armored Lab Force VULVEHICLES older $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) ASTRO PORT
Brotherhood $9.99 27 96% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FatCatGames
Legend of the Moon 2 $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) GozipGame
Swarm Sweeper $2.99 7 100% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Hi-Develop
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge
Petrix $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Dams-Labs
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
Olbers Paradox $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Neko Sphere
Demeter $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Myth Machine
Dungeons Bomb $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) MARIOZY

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.