Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Sailing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sailing Shooter?

Shooter + Sailing

Only 10 developers shipped a Sailing Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, UMIGARI | ウミガリ, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×639 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Sailing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shooter + Sailing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,089)
Top 5% $401k (exactly $401,001)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Sailing
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 82% positive over 1,473 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
Furious Seas older $19.99 196 71% 5.9k $118k (exactly $117,541) Future Immersive
Sail · EA older $14.99 128 72% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Red Team Interactive Inc., Continuum XR
JAWS: Retro Edition $14.99 38 97% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Limited Run Games
Big Booty Adventures · EA older $8.99 23 69% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) NeVReal Studios
Salt and Sails older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) DiaMMax
Dragons Reef VR $19.99 4 50% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Radoslaw Kutowinski
Submarine Survivor $3.99 5 80% 150 $598 (exactly $598) The Bat Flight
Moby Click $3.99 3 33% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Drew VanWagner
Line of Fire - Pirate Waltz · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ige Olwen
Void Phantom $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Rpx
Sail: Evolved Tides $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Aellora Games
Cutlass Quest $29.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hinm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.