Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Survival game?

Survival + Runner

Of 46 developers who shipped a Runner Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 45 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 45 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $327 → $449 → $150 → $299 → $150 → $89 → $359 (still earning) → $105 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $480 (exactly $480)
Top 5% $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 213
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Runner; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 138 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $480, 1 in 20 over $2.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ALTF4 2021 · $848k Race The Sun 2013 · $592k Furry Killer 2022 · $217k Orbt XL 2017 · $96k Ruthless Safari 2017 · $80k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
Orbt XL older $0.99 3,230 96% 97k $96k (exactly $95,931) Adamvision Studios
Ruthless Safari older $24.99 107 71% 3.2k $80k (exactly $80,218) SharkGame
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Rabbit Riot older $39.99 49 87% 1.5k $59k (exactly $58,785) Reactor Studios
Sex Apocalypse 2 older $9.99 195 55% 5.9k $58k (exactly $58,442) Octo Games
[Chilla's Art] Hanako | 花子さん older $7.99 229 75% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) Chilla's Art
SQUID GIRLS 18+ older $6.99 198 60% 5.9k $42k (exactly $41,521) Squid Developer
Prison Escape Simulator $9.99 18 77% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) PEGAX Studios
Super Miners · EA $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) METAGAR
Perfect Liar $3.99 20 100% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) eightworks allware
Rolling Macho:Tumbling to Earth $3.99 16 81% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) SERIALGAMES Inc.
Dino running from a FURRY: GAMESFORFARM $2.99 21 100% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
UNDERGROUND $1.99 17 58% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) UncleScrooge
Cube-Field+ $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Cool Birb Studio
Mr HappyFunFace $2.99 10 90% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Big Red Eight
Roll Or Die · EA $2.99 10 100% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Crimson Cloud Games
The Cursed Ward $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) Psychoception Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.