Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Runner?

Runner + Psychological

Only 14 developers shipped a Psychological Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Campfire: Night One, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $1.0k → $2.2k → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 12
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 3D Platformer, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 149 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $840, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  5. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  6. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  11. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds9 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Sky older $3.99 295 78% 8.9k $35k (exactly $35,312) JMJ Interactive, Mårten Jonsson
Doodle Adventure of Chameleon older $8.99 58 94% 1.7k $16k (exactly $15,643) Cube of Cube
TAURONOS older $4.99 48 87% 1.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,186) cavalie_ro, S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Star Sky 3 older $3.99 59 88% 1.8k $7.1k (exactly $7,062) Mårten Jonsson, JMJ Interactive
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Running Girl older $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) TonAme
Umbral older $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Walter O. M. Junior
Hypotheses on the Symmetry between Vision and Hands $1.99 54 96% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) Finger tip
Skyward Dream older $5.99 17 76% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) KEFROST MANUFACTURE
TUTUTUTU - Tea party older $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Bizarre games
Corridor Exit 8 $1.99 37 64% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Mynoki Games
LightQb $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) RobDoesStuff
UNDERGROUND $1.99 17 58% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) UncleScrooge
Mr HappyFunFace $2.99 10 90% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Big Red Eight
The Cursed Ward $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) Psychoception Productions
独特的友谊 - Special Friendship $2.99 6 66% 180 $538 (exactly $538) U0U0X幽灵
Hot Pig Jump! $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) DekkaRuby Games
Level P $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jinakuma

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.