Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Runner?

Runner + Idler

Only 16 developers shipped an Idler Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Eggo, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 975% on the market; 8 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $240 → $1.4k → $150 → $838 → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $55,707)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 52
Announced 8
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Automation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  5. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  6. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  11. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds9 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eggo $5.99 310 83% 9.3k $56k (exactly $55,707) 天赋一饼 Meme Crepe
Progress Racer RPG $5.99 133 94% 4.0k $24k (exactly $23,900) Cameron Ladjevardi, David Elliot
Boss of this gym older $0.99 495 94% 15k $15k (exactly $14,702) IndieGameMamaDev
RUNNER RTX older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
Dungeon Warriors · EA older $5.99 25 52% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) FireStone Studio
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
Only Straight and Up! $19.99 3 33% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) AF Games
Synth Retro Vapor Wave older $0.99 59 72% 1.8k $1.8k (exactly $1,752) Meng Games
I KNOW YOUR ADDRESS older $0.99 49 100% 1.5k $1.5k (exactly $1,455) Blinko Gamehouse
Sounds of Nature older $7.99 6 50% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) BB STUDIO
Cube-Field+ $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Cool Birb Studio
Treasure Hunter: Echo of War $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Ulab Games
Don't Piss $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Cherokee Interactive
Dragons Frolic! $3.99 7 85% 210 $838 (exactly $838) Starlit Castle
Vanguard - Idle Auto Battler $2.99 7 57% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Beep2Bleep
Fidget Widget $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) tatsumaki games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.