Should I ship a Loot Runner?
Loot + Runner
Only 8 developers shipped a Loot Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Garden Hunt, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) |
| Top 25% | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) |
| Top 5% | $3.2k (exactly $3,232) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 10 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Loot, Runner
- Price point
- $4.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,484 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds
- + Local Co-OpStrong odds
- + SteampunkStrong odds
- + CapitalismFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + JRPGFair
- + EconomyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + CatsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + CollectathonFair
Comparable games
YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! 2023 · $380k 
Epic Skater 2 2018 · $10k 
Treasure Hunter: History of Monastery Gold 2023 · $3.9k 
CosmoOdyssey 2: Comeback to origin 2023 · $3.5k 
Sky to Fly: Soulless Leviathan 2016 · $3.5k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! | older | $9.99 | 1,268 71% | 38k | $380k (exactly $380,020) | MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd. |
| | Epic Skater 2 | older | $14.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $10k (exactly $10,343) | Your Daily Fill |
| | Treasure Hunter: History of Monastery Gold | older | $4.99 | 26 84% | 780 | $3.9k (exactly $3,892) | Ulab Games |
| | CosmoOdyssey 2: Comeback to origin | older | $1.99 | 59 94% | 1.8k | $3.5k (exactly $3,522) | Brenntkopf Development |
| | Sky to Fly: Soulless Leviathan | older | $3.99 | 29 55% | 870 | $3.5k (exactly $3,471) | AIVIK LLC |
 | 冬眠（hibernation） | older | $6.99 | 16 100% | 480 | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) | 玄机子 |
 | Garden Hunt | $3.99 | 27 100% | 810 | $3.2k (exactly $3,232) | CREA CLAN, カミエナ / KamiEna | |
 | Condemned to Clean | $5.99 | 13 76% | 390 | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) | KOMA | |
 | Rogue Runner | $5.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) | 42nd Machine | |
 | Bad Goys | $4.99 | 11 72% | 330 | $1.6k (exactly $1,647) | Silvercrest Studios | |
 | Dead Bit | $4.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | escape2echo | |
 | Coffee Rush | $1.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Matthew Lalande | |
 | Super Loot Runner | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Janky Pixel Games | |
 | SavingSanta | $5.00 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Ken Henson |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.