Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Romance

Of 30 developers who shipped a Romance Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $860k, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $78k → $37k → $23k → $47k → $17k → $779 (still earning) → $48k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,792)
Top 5% $864k (exactly $863,827)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 108
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,678 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $860k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky older $19.99 8,801 94% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,277,960) Nihon Falcom
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne older $59.99 1,042 87% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) Chime Corporation
The Arrogant Kaiju Princess and The Detective Servant older $14.99 3,468 96% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,559,560) ARTcelerator, PantyParrot
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
LUNAR Remastered Collection $49.99 576 91% 17k $864k (exactly $863,827) ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd.
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
The Girl's Moving Castle $9.99 181 88% 5.4k $54k (exactly $54,246) Destined game Studio
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
I'm Not Sex King $10.99 147 76% 4.4k $48k (exactly $48,466) Sex King
Shujinkou $59.99 26 92% 780 $47k (exactly $46,792) Rice Games Inc
修仙•母珠传 Pig Training Legend $7.99 192 72% 5.8k $46k (exactly $46,022) MouseKKK
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.