Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Survival game?

Survival + Roguelite

Of 621 developers who shipped a Roguelite Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 942 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 942 games are announced against 389 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 942 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 621
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0k → $2.6k → $2.4k → $2.1k → $1.4k → $1.1k → $1.1k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 621
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $8.3k (exactly $8,266)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 621
Released games 1,273
Announced 942
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 354,186 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 253 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 942 games are announced against 389 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Back 4 Blood 2021 · $99M Escape From Duckov 2025 · $45M Megabonk 2025 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Back 4 Blood older $59.99 55,160 69% 1.7M $99M (exactly $99,271,452) Turtle Rock Studios
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
The Binding of Isaac older $4.99 49,208 94% 1.5M $7.4M (exactly $7,366,438) Edmund McMillen, Florian Himsl
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.