Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Tabletop

Of 38 developers who shipped a Tabletop Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×631 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 87 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $5.4k → $44k → $3.0k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,059)
Top 5% $300k (exactly $299,500)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 59
Announced 87
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder, Tabletop; all of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 6,516 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Demonic Mahjong $16.99 3,875 95% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,975,087) Boxed Lighting Games
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
ORX · EA older $19.99 636 68% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) johnbell
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
One Deck Dungeon older $9.99 783 81% 23k $235k (exactly $234,665) Handelabra Games Inc.
Toy Smash Kaboom! $13.99 550 84% 17k $231k (exactly $230,835) Free Particle
DungeonTop older $15.99 452 80% 14k $217k (exactly $216,824) One Up Plus Entertainment
Dice Player One older $14.99 456 90% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) KDream
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Toads of the Bayou $9.99 137 72% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) La Grange

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.