Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Perma Death + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 65 developers who shipped a Perma Death Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $3.6k. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 66 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 66 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $328k → $35k → $11k → $13k → $1.9k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,463)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 101
Announced 66
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 6,666 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  4. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  5. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  6. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  7. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M SpellRogue 2025 · $939k Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k LONESTAR 2025 · $851k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
One Deck Dungeon older $9.99 783 81% 23k $235k (exactly $234,665) Handelabra Games Inc.
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Lost For Swords $9.99 248 89% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) MaxBytes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.