Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 31 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×671 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 45 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $82k → $76k → $390k → $55k → $121k → $11k → $2.2k (still earning) → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Median $11k (exactly $10,795)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $89,355)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,078)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 58
Announced 45
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,461 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Shogun Showdown 2024 · $2.8M Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend 2022 · EA · $1.8M Hadean Tactics 2023 · $1.0M Dream of Corpse Lady 2026 · $634k Yohane the Parhelion - NUMAZU in the MIRAGE - 2024 · $616k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Yohane the Parhelion - NUMAZU in the MIRAGE - older $29.99 685 90% 21k $616k (exactly $616,294) BeXide Inc.
RUNGORE older $14.99 991 85% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) YOUR_MOM'S_HP, RavenJm
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
Dicefolk older $14.99 867 89% 26k $390k (exactly $389,890) LEAP Game Studios, Tiny Ghoul
Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings $24.99 469 74% 14k $352k (exactly $351,609) Palindrome Interactive
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Three Kingdoms: The Blood Moon $8.99 746 91% 22k $201k (exactly $201,196) Kygua Tech
Union of Gnomes $14.99 270 80% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Hoolignomes
Godslayer Arena · EA $14.99 257 76% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Hippo Rider Games
Golden Swirl $19.99 149 92% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Snako Production
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.