Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Roguelike

Of 675 developers who shipped a Roguelike Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,195 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×657 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,195 games are announced against 442 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,195 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 675
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $21k → $4.7k → $6.0k → $11k → $4.3k → $2.2k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 675
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,354)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 675
Released games 1,302
Announced 1,195
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 40,828 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 278 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,195 games are announced against 442 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M For The King 2018 · $19M Monster Train 2020 · $15M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.