Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Space Sim?

Space Sim + Robots

Only 17 developers shipped a Robot Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mars First Logistics, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 575% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 575% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $148 → $18k → $119 → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 72
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 575% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Simulation, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,693 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
First Class Trouble older $14.99 3,103 79% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,395,419) Invisible Walls
Executive Assault 2 older $24.99 1,604 82% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,519) Hesketh Studios Ltd
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Rebel Galaxy Outlaw older $29.99 942 65% 28k $848k (exactly $847,517) Double Damage Games
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Final Upgrade older $19.99 437 75% 13k $262k (exactly $262,069) TaosX
Strike Suit Zero: Director's Cut older $9.99 363 82% 11k $109k (exactly $108,791) Born Ready Games
Endless Dark $7.99 115 99% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,566) Little Light Studios, LLC
Rebots $14.99 41 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) FlatPonies
RoboDeal Simulator $3.99 13 92% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) Dual Cluster Studios
Terraspace $7.99 5 20% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Black Apple
Red Siren: Space Defense $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) ISTOM Games
UNIT 42: Adrift in Space · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) AwitaGames
Nebula Strike $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) 杨羽灰
Command Reboot $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) 厦门必虎网络科技有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.