Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Puzzle

Of 223 developers who shipped a Puzzle Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×128 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 311 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 311 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 223
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $3.4k → $898 → $2.6k → $1.7k → $719 → $807 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 223
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 223
Released games 680
Announced 311
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $810, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 111 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
ISLANDERS older $4.99 16,104 94% 483k $2.4M (exactly $2,410,769) Coatsink, GrizzlyGames, Stage Clear Stu… (Coatsink, GrizzlyGames, Stage Clear Studios)
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
ISLANDERS: New Shores $9.99 1,230 96% 37k $369k (exactly $368,631) The Station
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
Treasure 'n Trio $14.99 242 100% 7.3k $109k (exactly $108,827) TNT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.