Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Survival game?

Survival + Puzzle

Of 280 developers who shipped a Puzzle Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 418 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×204 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 418 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 418 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 280
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $3.2k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $899 → $479 → $719 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 280
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $127,972)
Developers, 2 yr 280
Released games 1,034
Announced 418
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 31,430 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $840, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 155 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 418 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard older $19.99 87,806 95% 2.6M $53M (exactly $52,657,258) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc older $19.99 36,194 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,705,542) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games)
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition older $4.99 143,506 97% 4.3M $21M (exactly $21,482,848) PopCap Games, Inc.
DEVOUR older $9.99 68,664 90% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,578,601) Straight Back Games
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Emissary Zero $8.99 2,683 83% 80k $724k (exactly $723,605) Rone Vine
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.