Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Puzzle

Of 79 developers who shipped a Puzzle Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 125 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 75% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 125 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $5.5k → $179 → $3.7k → $2.5k → $120 → $180 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,126)
Top 5% $179k (exactly $179,040)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 235
Announced 125
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tactical Breach Wizards 2024 · $6.9M Depersonalization 2024 · $3.6M BOOK OF HOURS 2023 · $3.1M Breakout 13 2023 · $2.1M Ledgerbound 2026 · $506k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Floating Life2 older $19.99 637 50% 19k $382k (exactly $382,009) 心流工作室（Heart Stream Studio）
消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Wargroove 2 older $19.99 403 69% 12k $242k (exactly $241,679) Chucklefish, Robotality
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
AnnaRedux $19.99 29 79% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) 那什么游戏制作日记
Chaos Entropy $11.00 48 89% 1.4k $16k (exactly $15,840) MILLIDIA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.