Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Psychological Horror

Of 46 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1184 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 66 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $54k → $3.4k → $1.0k → $264k → $898 → $2.7k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,422)
Top 25% $87k (exactly $86,513)
Top 5% $743k (exactly $743,405)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 110
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$6.49 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $6.49.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 38,300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Karryn's Prison older $29.99 4,414 95% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Remtairy
Total War: PHARAOH older $29.99 3,622 63% 109k $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne older $59.99 1,042 87% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) Chime Corporation
Fuga: Melodies of Steel older $39.99 1,181 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) CyberConnect2
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
Warhammer Quest (Classic) older $29.99 897 71% 27k $807k (exactly $807,031) Rodeo Games, Twistplay
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
NO-SKIN $6.99 1,227 95% 37k $257k (exactly $257,302) NoEye-Soft
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.