Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Post-apocalyptic

Of 58 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 163 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 163 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 163 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $14k → $2.7k → $2.9k → $13k → $2.0k → $26k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,472)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 218
Announced 163
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Tactics, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 60,960 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 163 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Wasteland 2: Director's Cut older $29.99 4,664 82% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) inXile Entertainment
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Artis Impact $18.99 2,308 84% 69k $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) Mas
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.