Do I ship it?

GamesSniperSniper + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Sniper game?

Sniper + Physics

Only 10 developers shipped a Physics Sniper game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pih 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $620 against a market of $630. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20525% on the market, 21 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $624 → $30 → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $624 (exactly $624)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,085)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 32
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20525% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper, Physics
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 89% positive over 659 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $620, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + MilitaryPoor odds28 devs · median $3.0k · 38 announced
  4. + TacticalPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  6. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  8. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  11. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Clownfield 2042 older $0.99 3,964 84% 119k $118k (exactly $117,731) RIVERSIDE SPORTS
Pih 2 $9.99 384 92% 12k $115k (exactly $115,085) BecomeANobody
GW: Legacy older $15.99 128 61% 3.8k $61k (exactly $61,402) Alto Interactive
UberSoldier older $4.99 288 83% 8.6k $43k (exactly $43,114) Burut CT
TrickShot Simulator $5.99 191 81% 5.7k $34k (exactly $34,323) BeaTeb
DeadCore Redux $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) 5 Bits Games
Sandbox World older $4.99 133 72% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,910) XMAKE
Combat Troops VR · EA older $11.99 39 74% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) GAME PRESSURE STUDIO LTD
Makber older $12.99 9 11% 270 $3.5k (exactly $3,507) celikgames
Cannon Clicker $5.99 8 75% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Ritual Interactive
BouleMan $0.99 21 100% 630 $624 (exactly $624) Haruka Nitaka, Matthew Taylor, Samantha… (Haruka Nitaka, Matthew Taylor, Samantha Anderson, Sussanne Beaujeu, T.Beaujeu, S.DAAS, Tony Tutty)
Sticks & Strings $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Y-Axis Games LLC
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games
Archerry Storm $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) OriGame Studios
Abrez $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Haruka Nitaka, S.Daas, Tony Tutty, Suss… (Haruka Nitaka, S.Daas, Tony Tutty, Sussanne Beaujeu, T.Beaujeu)
ZeLastTank : Battle Royale $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ysn-production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.