Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Zombies

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Zombie Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Zombies

Of 55 developers who shipped a Zombie Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 71 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 170% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Zombies
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $5.8k → $6.0k → $1.2k → $300 → $1.1k → $180 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Zombies: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $420 (exactly $420)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,722)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 156
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Zombies
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 10,814 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition older $29.99 59,156 83% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,222,653) Undead Labs
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
State of Decay: YOSE older $19.99 10,526 82% 316k $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) Undead Labs
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
ZOMBI older $19.99 2,964 64% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,777,511) Straight Right
Subterrain older $16.99 1,003 79% 30k $511k (exactly $511,229) Pixellore Inc
Deadly Days older $11.99 1,388 86% 42k $499k (exactly $499,264) Pixelsplit
The Unliving older $16.99 762 62% 23k $388k (exactly $388,391) RocketBrush Games
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Raining Blood: Hellfire $7.99 198 89% 5.9k $47k (exactly $47,461) TechBooh
The Left Behind $10.99 116 23% 3.5k $38k (exactly $38,245) Extrude
My Putrid Ponies · EA $4.99 165 89% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,700) Ajolote Dev
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt
No Time For Pants $7.99 33 84% 990 $7.9k (exactly $7,910) Pixel Push Inc
Carnival Of Souls $9.99 26 76% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Tika Studios
DAWN ONE $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) shaderbunny

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.