Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Perma Death

Of 36 developers who shipped a Perma Death 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $449 → $838 → $1.2k → $1.0k → $955 → $599 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,059)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 102
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer, Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 13,763 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  9. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  10. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced
  12. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 19 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
ALTF42 older $7.99 495 75% 15k $119k (exactly $118,652) PUMPKIM
Fallback older $9.99 299 87% 9.0k $90k (exactly $89,610) Endroad
Only Way is Down $9.99 137 63% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) Jilted Generation Productions
Parking Together! $9.99 88 95% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) ENGAWA GAMES
Escape This older $4.99 140 59% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) Four Winged Studio
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations
Giant Beast Island $6.99 37 59% 1.1k $7.8k (exactly $7,759) Dinosaur Studio
Lazy Climbers $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Cool Car Studio
Flames of Freedom: 1821 · EA $4.99 31 80% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) NOUMENON
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
Nullwake $5.99 14 78% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) DIG Games
Go Ahead $5.49 15 86% 450 $2.5k (exactly $2,470) Broken Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.