Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Time Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Time Management game?

Perma Death + Time Management

Of 49 developers who shipped a Perma Death Time Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 66 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 66 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Time Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $67k → $2.0k → $150 → $449 → $1.3k → $150 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Time Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $51k (exactly $50,649)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 99
Announced 66
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Time Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Time Management; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Procedural Generation, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 18,570 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Aliya: Timelink older $2.99 8,587 97% 258k $770k (exactly $770,254) TDGame Studio
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Rogue Station older $9.99 225 77% 6.8k $67k (exactly $67,432) Quint Studio
Hired 2 Die $9.99 169 82% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Electric Monkeys
Pizza Deathlivery $5.99 161 72% 4.8k $29k (exactly $28,932) Kusa Games
Time Snatcher Handy $9.99 88 96% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) PulleyBun, ClockworkCats
Heliotropism older $9.99 74 91% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Verde
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
OVERDOSE $3.99 81 82% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) For Fun Games
Onychomp : Lush journey $12.99 18 100% 540 $7.0k (exactly $7,015) Howl Studio
SANTA $9.99 22 59% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Mightyy
ReTrime $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) DoubleSystem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.