Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Puzzle game?

Perma Death + Puzzle

Of 107 developers who shipped a Perma Death Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 110 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 110 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $1.2k → $537 → $839 → $1.5k → $536 → $419 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $536 (exactly $536)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Top 5% $104k (exactly $104,162)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 294
Announced 110
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 21,059 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.0k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

LOCKDOWN Protocol 2025 · $5.0M Pronoun Palace 2026 · $743k Uplink 2006 · $637k Lakeview Cabin Collection 2015 · $479k Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge 2009 · $422k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Lakeview Cabin Collection older $9.99 1,599 94% 48k $479k (exactly $479,220) Roope Tamminen
Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge older $1.99 7,062 77% 212k $422k (exactly $421,601) Invent4 Entertainment
Dead Signal older $12.99 1,007 88% 30k $392k (exactly $392,428) Reflect Studios
Welcome to the Game III $19.99 648 78% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Reflect Studios
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
Ironcast older $14.99 774 72% 23k $348k (exactly $348,068) Dreadbit
Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon older $19.99 518 91% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) VINE, Yacht Club Games
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
BroomSweeper $17.99 193 75% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) BandsWithLegends
Neon Village $9.99 146 86% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Encraft
Roach Post $12.99 57 100% 1.7k $22k (exactly $22,213) KARP GAMES
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.