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Should I ship a Perma Death Turn-Based Strategy?
Turn-Based Strategy + Perma Death
Of 111 developers who shipped a Perma Death Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 216 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 216 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $535 (exactly $535) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $27,739) |
| Top 5% | $390k (exactly $390,203) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 111 |
| Released games | 280 |
| Announced | 216 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Strategy, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 11,965 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 216 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + Cold WarFair
- + RomeFair
- + LootFair
- + MiningFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + TanksFair
- + SokobanFair
- + Top-Down ShooterFair
- + SpaceFair
Comparable games
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M 
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M 
Wildfrost 2023 · $4.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Darkest Dungeon® II | older | $39.99 | 24,249 74% | 727k | $29M (exactly $29,091,525) | Red Hook Studios |
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | The Last Spell | older | $24.99 | 13,260 91% | 398k | $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) | Ishtar Games |
| | Wildfrost | older | $19.99 | 8,175 82% | 245k | $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) | Deadpan Games, Gaziter |
 | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Mordheim: City of the Damned | older | $19.99 | 7,056 72% | 212k | $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) | Rogue Factor |
 | Othercide | older | $29.99 | 4,516 82% | 135k | $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) | Lightbulb Crew |
 | Phoenix Point | older | $24.99 | 5,375 73% | 161k | $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
 | Invisible, Inc. | older | $19.99 | 5,096 91% | 153k | $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers | |
 | SpellRogue | $19.99 | 1,566 86% | 47k | $939k (exactly $939,130) | Guidelight Games | |
 | LONESTAR | $12.99 | 2,183 90% | 65k | $851k (exactly $850,715) | Math Tide | |
 | Pronoun Palace | $19.84 | 1,249 99% | 37k | $743k (exactly $743,405) | Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler | |
 | Those Who Rule | $17.99 | 1,116 89% | 33k | $602k (exactly $602,305) | Eldin Turulja | |
 | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | Bloodgrounds | $19.99 | 561 77% | 17k | $336k (exactly $336,432) | Exordium Games | |
 | Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron | $12.99 | 563 85% | 17k | $219k (exactly $219,401) | Kinnymoms | |
 | Gods of Sand | $9.99 | 720 86% | 22k | $216k (exactly $215,784) | Achenar Studios | |
 | Railroads & Catacombs | $19.99 | 358 73% | 11k | $215k (exactly $214,693) | MadRails |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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