Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Tower Defense?

Perma Death + Tower Defense

Of 27 developers who shipped a Perma Death Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×289 the market median. Revenue is up 390% on the market; 59 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 390% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $2.0k → $1.2k → $839 → $539 → $839 → $539 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,352)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $137,405)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 87
Announced 59
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 390% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Tower Defense; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,320 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $540, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ 2014 · $3.4M Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k Cluckmech Oasis 2024 · $922k Utopia Must Fall 2024 · EA · $339k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ older $11.99 9,419 87% 283k $3.4M (exactly $3,388,014) AMPLITUDE Studios
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
Cluckmech Oasis older $9.99 3,077 87% 92k $922k (exactly $922,177) BlackLight
Utopia Must Fall · EA older $8.99 1,258 95% 38k $339k (exactly $339,283) Pixeljam
Infectonator: Survivors older $9.99 997 67% 30k $299k (exactly $298,801) Toge Productions
Exodus Borealis older $19.99 243 91% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Smug Marmot Studios
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
Skirmish Line older $9.99 353 87% 11k $106k (exactly $105,794) The Snarktopus
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Maze Keeper $8.99 84 47% 2.5k $23k (exactly $22,655) Spaceward Games
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
Neon Ascending $3.99 90 82% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,773) TheCarmineDepth
Hand of Hexes $11.99 26 96% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) emmdieh
Dough or Die · EA $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Soundbyte Interactive
Pinball Hero $3.99 17 76% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) COSO
Stop the Blight $12.99 4 50% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Bouncy Washer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.