Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Top-Down Shooter?

Perma Death + Top-Down Shooter

Of 95 developers who shipped a Perma Death Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 150 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×77 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 150 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 150 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $2.0k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $899 → $1.1k → $179 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Top 5% $37k (exactly $36,632)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 282
Announced 150
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 150 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Nuclear Throne 2015 · $5.4M The Last Stand: Aftermath 2021 · $4.6M Heat Signature 2017 · $3.1M SYNTHETIK 2 2021 · EA · $1.9M Pathogenic 2026 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
SYNTHETIK 2 · EA older $19.99 3,202 81% 96k $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) Flow Fire Games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Cluckmech Oasis older $9.99 3,077 87% 92k $922k (exactly $922,177) BlackLight
Teleglitch: Die More Edition older $12.99 1,005 88% 30k $392k (exactly $391,648) Test3 Projects
Night Raider older $5.99 1,908 85% 57k $343k (exactly $342,868) TSUKUYOMIC
Mind older $17.99 372 69% 11k $201k (exactly $200,768) WHIRLLAXY LIMITED
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Schism $11.99 140 96% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) Fami
Raining Blood: Hellfire $7.99 198 89% 5.9k $47k (exactly $47,461) TechBooh
Planet Killer $12.99 94 79% 2.8k $37k (exactly $36,632) Talisman One Studio
Ammo and Oxygen $14.99 53 64% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Juvty Worlds
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Darkchaser: Battletide $5.99 84 73% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) DB Studio
Decks of Dexterity $14.99 33 100% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Coded Games
Ascendant $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Imagisphere

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.