Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Thriller

Of 39 developers who shipped a Thriller Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 26 developers shipped in the last year and 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $327 → $449 → $1.5k → $2.6k → $300 → $358 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,722)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 80
Announced 39
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 3,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Quarry 2022 · $29M Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike 2022 · $484k SILENT BREATH 2026 · $337k Golfing Over It with Alva Majo 2018 · $219k UNDERWARD 2025 · $178k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike older $4.99 3,230 87% 97k $484k (exactly $483,531) Rayll
SILENT BREATH $9.99 1,124 67% 34k $337k (exactly $336,863) EXODIAC STUDIOS
Golfing Over It with Alva Majo older $4.99 1,461 75% 44k $219k (exactly $218,712) Majorariatto
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Project Songbird $14.99 195 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) FYRE Games, Conner Rush
Spectator older $12.99 113 93% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,036) Minechan, Neko Machine
MOTHER older $2.99 400 89% 12k $36k (exactly $35,880) Anya Segarane
Box of Broken Nails $4.99 181 97% 5.4k $27k (exactly $27,096) Cdodge, trushkeen
My Putrid Ponies · EA $4.99 165 89% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,700) Ajolote Dev
DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA $4.99 64 93% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Danger Sauce LLC
Cursed Halls $6.99 26 92% 780 $5.5k (exactly $5,452) Souls Alive Development
Forest 6174 $2.99 29 82% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) itandfeel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.