Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Tabletop game?

Perma Death + Tabletop

Only 18 developers shipped a Perma Death Tabletop game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Isle of Swaps, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 42 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $1.9k → $719 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,011)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 41
Announced 42
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Tabletop; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
One Deck Dungeon older $9.99 783 81% 23k $235k (exactly $234,665) Handelabra Games Inc.
Age of Fear 2: The Chaos Lord GOLD older $24.99 273 80% 8.2k $205k (exactly $204,668) Leslaw Sliwko
Age of Fear 3: The Legend older $29.99 164 93% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) Leslaw Sliwko
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Crowntakers older $9.99 398 74% 12k $119k (exactly $119,281) Bulwark Studios
Defend the Rook older $17.99 189 73% 5.7k $102k (exactly $102,003) One Up Plus
Rezrog older $9.99 298 44% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Soaphog
Age of Fear: The Undead King GOLD older $29.99 81 92% 2.4k $73k (exactly $72,876) Leslaw Sliwko
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
Slaves of Magic $24.99 37 78% 1.1k $28k (exactly $27,739) Amethyst Dreamers
SOG: Vietnam $12.99 33 93% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) PigeonMakesGames, Games By Loki
IT Startup: Tech Fodder $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Kupilas Media
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops
Runewood: Hundred Nights $2.99 21 76% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Jestercraft
AI Fantasy $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Zueir AI
Scoundrel's Dungeon · EA $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Oppenheimer Research Facility
SHULERO – Dice Roguelike $4.99 4 50% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Airem
Scoundrel $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) senator.ovh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.