Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Supernatural

Of 47 developers who shipped a Supernatural Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $980 → $742 → $11k → $269 → $2.8k → $449 → $150 (still earning) → $117 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,140)
Top 5% $116k (exactly $116,472)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 89
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,417 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Rogue Loops $14.99 259 71% 7.8k $116k (exactly $116,472) Fubu Games
Make Good Choices $2.99 556 88% 17k $50k (exactly $49,873) TN Games
NecroBouncer older $13.99 96 75% 2.9k $40k (exactly $40,291) Alchemy Sheep
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Pizza Deathlivery $5.99 161 72% 4.8k $29k (exactly $28,932) Kusa Games
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
Horny Haunts $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Naelstrof, Raliv, BigCozyOrca, Eugene
Italian Brainrot: In Prison $4.99 64 81% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) ShLeks, Hero
DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA $4.99 64 93% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Danger Sauce LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.