Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Perma Death

Of 51 developers who shipped a Perma Death Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 124 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 124 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $7.2k → $13k → $3.5k → $22k → $1.2k → $4.7k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Top 25% $77k (exactly $76,752)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 129
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Tactical RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 11,222 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M Cyber Knights: Flashpoint 2025 · $2.6M Dark Deity 2021 · $2.0M Lost Eidolons 2022 · $1.8M Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot 2026 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Dark Deity older $24.99 2,652 72% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,988,204) Sword & Axe LLC
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Urtuk: The Desolation older $13.99 2,408 87% 72k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) David Kaleta
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.