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Should I ship a Perma Death Space Sim?
Space Sim + Perma Death
Only 16 developers shipped a Perma Death Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Approaching Infinity, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×4.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $535 (exactly $535) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $27,566) |
| Top 5% | $390k (exactly $390,203) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 52 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Space Sim
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Space Sim, Perma Death
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 1,416 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DestructionFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + WarFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SportsFair
- + DiplomacyLong shot
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
Comparable games
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M 
Star Traders: Frontiers 2018 · $1.7M 
Space Crew: Legendary Edition 2020 · $808k 
Approaching Infinity 2025 · $390k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Marauders | · EA older | $29.99 | 13,505 68% | 405k | $12M (exactly $12,150,448) | Small Impact Games |
| | Star Traders: Frontiers | older | $14.99 | 3,672 83% | 110k | $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) | Trese Brothers |
| | Space Crew: Legendary Edition | older | $15.99 | 1,684 77% | 51k | $808k (exactly $807,815) | Runner Duck |
| | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | Exo Rally Championship | $24.99 | 374 90% | 11k | $280k (exactly $280,388) | Exbleative | |
 | Transcendence | older | $14.99 | 214 88% | 6.4k | $96k (exactly $96,236) | Kronosaur Productions |
 | Power of Ten | older | $11.99 | 248 79% | 7.4k | $89k (exactly $89,206) | Pew Times Three |
 | Lilith Odyssey | older | $19.99 | 59 76% | 1.8k | $35k (exactly $35,382) | Chaystar Unlimited LLC |
 | Command Deck | · EA | $14.99 | 74 98% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | k-critical |
 | Endless Dark | $7.99 | 115 99% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $27,566) | Little Light Studios, LLC | |
 | Null Hørizøn | $9.99 | 27 85% | 810 | $8.1k (exactly $8,092) | HopefullyHeroic | |
 | Asteroid Odyssey | $4.99 | 30 36% | 900 | $4.5k (exactly $4,491) | LampDog Studio | |
 | Orbitous | $2.99 | 43 93% | 1.3k | $3.9k (exactly $3,857) | Oddmin | |
 | Quantum Loop | $5.99 | 17 100% | 510 | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) | slashslash, Declan Carveth | |
 | The Chaser's Voyage | $19.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | Bright at Midnight: A Game Studio | |
 | BattleshipCrafting | $5.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $1.8k (exactly $1,797) | 洛米条 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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