Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Shooter?

Shooter + Perma Death

Of 166 developers who shipped a Perma Death Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 260 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 260 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 166
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.4k → $599 → $1.7k → $899 → $899 → $359 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 166
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $128,449)
Developers, 2 yr 166
Released games 512
Announced 260
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 18,548 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
SYNTHETIK 2 · EA older $19.99 3,202 81% 96k $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) Flow Fire Games
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.