Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Shoot 'Em Up?

Perma Death + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 86 developers who shipped a Perma Death Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $60k, ×128 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 82 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 82 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 86
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $2.1k → $899 → $599 → $299 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 86
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $61k (exactly $60,884)
Developers, 2 yr 86
Released games 251
Announced 82
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Shoot 'Em Up; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,178 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $60k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dead Estate 2021 · $2.6M Star of Providence 2017 · $1.4M Sexy Mystic Survivors 2022 · EA · $556k CRUEL 2025 · $544k Spell Disk 2024 · $434k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
Star of Providence older $14.99 3,178 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,429,147) Team D-13
Sexy Mystic Survivors · EA older $9.99 1,856 75% 56k $556k (exactly $556,243) Fantasize Games
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Utopia Must Fall · EA older $8.99 1,258 95% 38k $339k (exactly $339,283) Pixeljam
Beautiful Mystic Survivors · EA older $4.99 1,209 69% 36k $181k (exactly $180,987) Fantasize Games
Super Amazing Wagon Adventure older $2.99 1,638 95% 49k $147k (exactly $146,929) sparsevector
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Ogre Chambers 2222 $7.99 254 96% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,884) ANTENNA GAMES
Schism $11.99 140 96% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) Fami
Lilac 0 $11.49 68 94% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,440) Bullet Prince, Victor Pouderoux
BloodDome99 $4.99 79 94% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) Halftone Gaming
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
Hopeless Sea $11.99 27 81% 810 $9.7k (exactly $9,712) Potato Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.