Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Runner?

Perma Death + Runner

Of 24 developers who shipped a Perma Death Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 26 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 26 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $356 → $419 → $356 → $1.6k → $449 → $479 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,470)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,838)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 99
Announced 26
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Runner; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,442 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.4k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phantom Abyss 2024 · $1.2M ALTF4 2021 · $848k Race The Sun 2013 · $592k ODDCORE 2026 · EA · $421k BEERCRUSH 2025 · $31k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
BEERCRUSH $4.99 206 100% 6.2k $31k (exactly $30,838) LOWLIGHT
SpeedOverflow older $4.99 116 72% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) 狼烟
Incaved Runner older $3.99 78 96% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) DualWielded
Man in gravity older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Disco Ball older $24.99 12 83% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
RUNNER RTX older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
Synthwave Dream '85 $3.99 48 100% 1.4k $5.7k (exactly $5,746) LoneDev
Lazy Climbers $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Cool Car Studio
Nullwake $5.99 14 78% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) DIG Games
Go Ahead $5.49 15 86% 450 $2.5k (exactly $2,470) Broken Project
Rogue Runner $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 42nd Machine
Rat Run $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Pixel Rodents
UNDERGROUND $1.99 17 58% 510 $1.0k (exactly $1,015) UncleScrooge
She Never Left $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Krisztián Zana

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.