Do I ship it?

GamesQuick-Time EventsQuick-Time Events + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Quick-Time Events Perma Death game?

Quick-Time Events + Perma Death

Of 25 developers who shipped a Quick-Time Events Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 22 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Quick-Time Events + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $1.2k → $120 → $1.3k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Quick-Time Events + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $14,028)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 49
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Quick-Time Events, Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Resource Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Quick-Time Events with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  2. + Shoot 'Em UpFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  3. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $958 · 33 announced
  4. + SimulationFair116 devs · median $748 · 133 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair15 devs · median $720 · 18 announced
  6. + Resource ManagementFair46 devs · median $719 · 55 announced
  7. + FlightFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  8. + AliensFair12 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  9. + SpaceFair16 devs · median $597 · 24 announced
  10. + Bullet TimeLong shot10 devs · median $390 · 15 announced
  11. + DemonsLong shot17 devs · median $300 · 22 announced
  12. + Bullet HellLong shot27 devs · median $239 · 25 announced

All 110 pairs on the Quick-Time Events page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge older $1.99 7,062 77% 212k $422k (exactly $421,601) Invent4 Entertainment
Portobugia older $7.99 84 83% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Bogland Studio
Don't Pee older $1.99 255 90% 7.7k $15k (exactly $15,224) Naughty Clogs
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations
Type or Die $13.99 29 31% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Type or Die
Let It Go - How to realize your dreams older $9.99 20 100% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Philozofia Studio
Breakfall: Nuclear Winter · EA $17.99 7 28% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Dominik Geuer
Amber Alert TOTAL VR $5.99 19 47% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain
Night of the Dead Simulator $7.99 12 50% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Unknown People Lab
Captain Puff MacFly $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) MVCAO Studios
City 33 $15.99 3 0% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) ebt studios
Slot or Die $13.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,259) cr0cq
The King of Wall Street $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Yogo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.